Post Fire Debris Flow Headwater Catchments

This dataset maps the potential for post-fire debris flow initiation in forested headwater catchments across Victoria, using outputs from the HydroFire model. It focuses on upland regions of the Great Dividing Range—particularly North East Victoria, the Central Highlands, and East Gippsland—where debris flows have historically occurred. Areas with insufficient observational data or unsuitable geology have been excluded from the dataset, including the Otway's, Strzelecki Ranges, Grampians, and granite-dominated landscapes such as Mt Buffalo, Wilsons Promontory, and parts of the Strathbogie Ranges.

The HydroFire model was calibrated and validated using a database of observed post-fire debris flow events from major fire seasons including 2003, 2007, 2009, and 2019–2020. Debris flow initiation probability was modelled at 20 m resolution using key variables including rainfall intensity, fire severity, slope, and soil characteristics. Initiation is most likely in steep headwater catchments underlain by shallow, poorly developed soils, where high burn severity is followed by intense rainfall.

This dataset supports both pre-fire strategic planning and post-fire risk assessment by providing spatially explicit estimates of where debris flows are most likely to begin. It is most effectively used in conjunction with the Post Fire Debris Flow Runout datasets, which estimate the likely paths and spatial impact of debris flows once initiated.

The following reports provide further methodological and technical details:

Keeble, T., Lyell, C., Tabone, A., & Sheridan, G. (2022). Mitigating Extreme Post Fire Hydro-Geomorphic Risk in Victoria, Stage 3. Integrated Forest Ecosystem Research (IFER) report, Version 1.1.

Nyman, P., & Alluvium Consulting (2022). Assessing Post-Fire Catchment Hazards: Toolbox for Rapid Risk Assessment Teams (RRATs). Technical Report.

Data and Resources

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See this dataset in the Digital Twin Victoria

Additional Information

Field Value
Published (Metadata Record) 06/10/2026
Last updated 06/10/2026
Organisation Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action
Category
License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Full metadata URL https://metashare.maps.vic.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/7123681f-8d5c-4605-8ea8-7e346b0c1c86/formatters/sdm-html?root=div-sdm
Update Frequency Unknown
Point of contact https://datashare.maps.vic.gov.au/contact-us

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